Atletico Madrid has no reason to worry about securing a Champions League berth, as they hold a 13 points advantage over Malaga. Valencia on the other hand is living on the edge and depending on what happens at Estadio Vicente Calderon they could climb or lose two positions.
Match: Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
Bet: Atletico Madrid 0:1 Asian Handicap
Odds: Bet365 2.08
The hosts are not at full strength because both Tiago and Juanfran are on the disabled list, but as long as they have Falcao upfront there is no reason for concern. Atletico Madrid lost a single game this season at home, won the other 13 and conceded just seven points, the best percentage in Primera Division. Winning away at Osasuna last week brought them back on track after drawing three games and losing one at home to Real Sociedad.
Valencia lost Soldado to injury and this will weigh heavily against Atletico Madrid, because without their top scorer the Bats will have a hard time keeping the ball in their opponents’ half. Defending is not an option because one point won’t make a difference and a draw could see them losing their position that guarantees a Europa League place. Despite a rather disappointing season, Valencia can still play in the Champions League next year and their ambition and rich tradition compels them to keep trying until the very last round.
If Soldado would be fit to play, this match would be the perfect candidate for an Over 2.5 goals bet, but as it is the chance of the visitors scoring are reduced. A better choice is to trust Atletico Madrid to win by two goals or more, while taking the safety net of a 0:1 Asian handicap at Bet365.