A quick glance at the odds will reveal the fact that the visitors are underestimated by bookmakers, who credit them with the second chance to win in Bilbao. Rayo Vallecano scored three goals in both recent games and shouldn’t have any problems against the struggling Athletic.
Match: Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: Bet365 1.70
The reason for why Rayo Vallecano is underpriced tonight has to do with the rather long injury list, that has crippled their defensive. Labaka, Carlos and Rodri are all sidelined, as well as first goalkeeper Cobeno which will force coach Jemez to take more chances upfront. So far the strategy delivered positive results, and with their opponents being cornered in their own half, Rayo Vallecano alleviating the pressure on their own back line.
The reason for why this strategy might backfire in Bilbao is that the hosts are resorting to a very similar tactic, as they have their own defensive issues. Aurtenexte, Laporte, Perez and Ruiz are all missing but the offense is looking great and Bielsa has plenty of choices upfront. He can afford to keep Llorente on the bench and start with an offensive duo made of young strikers De Marco and Ibai. If things don’t go as planned, he can always resort to veterans Llorente and Aduriz, with the latter being their most prolific goal scorer.
If both teams stick to their tactic and focused mostly on the offense, this match has excellent chances of turning into a scoring festival. Bookmakers are aware of this, and that’s why the odds for Over 2.5 goals to be scored are only 1.70 with Bet365. This is the safest bet for this fixture, but those who don’t mind taking bigger chances for the sake of higher profits, could go for Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.70.