In our second Royal Ascot 2013 preview, we’ve got a couple of betting tips lined up for the Ascot Gold Cup including a very interesting 50/1 (51.00) chance that SkyBet and a few other bookmakers appear to be overlooking. Will last year’s champ Colour Vision (pictured) be able to defend his crown? For the full story on this year’s Ascot Gold Cup, read on…
With 38 horses still entered in the 2013 Ascot Gold Cup, we need to thin the field a little by looking at past winners and picking out common trends. Here’s what we’ve found:
Key Ascot Gold Cup Trends
- 13 of the last 14 Ascot Gold Cup winners had contested between 1 and 3 races that year
- 12 of the last 14 winners had raced in the past 55 days
- 10 of the last 14 winners won their last flat race before heading to Royal Ascot
These Ascot Gold Cup trends tell us quite clearly that we need to be looking for a horse that’s in form and race sharp, but that hasn’t had a long and hard season.
- 12 of the last 14 Ascot Gold Cup winners were sired by stallions with a stamina index of 10.2f or greater
- 12 of the last 14 winners had already won over 2m or further
It goes without saying that any horse bidding to win the 2m 4f Ascot Gold Cup must have plenty of stamina in its pedigree and ideally, we’d like to see that stamina proven in the form book. The two exceptions to this particular Ascot Gold Cup trend were both making their first appearances in a race of over 14f, so it’s not as though they had tried and failed at extreme trips.
- 11 of the last 14 Ascot Gold Cup winners had won a Group 2 race (or better)
Clearly it’s going to take a classy individual to land any Group 1 race, let alone one at the Royal meeting. Even the exceptions to this rule were hardly lacking in class: one was NH bred and had finished third at the Cheltenham Festival, having never attempted a Group race on the flat; another had won a Group 3 and the third had only attempted one race in Group company, finishing 4th in a Group 1.
When applying the above trends to the 2013 Ascot Gold Cup field, no horses tick every single box. Two horses tick the vast majority though, only failing on the ‘won last race’ trend: last year’s winner Colour Vision and Dubai Gold Cup winner Cavalryman.
Both disappointed last time out in the Henry II Stakes, but of the two Cavalryman fared the best, finishing 5th on unfavoured softer ground. With better ground surely awaiting him at Royal Ascot this summer, you would fancy that he must have a good chance and at current odds of 12/1 (13.00) with Boylesports and Coral, he might just be the play.
If you’re looking for a real outsider in the 2013 Ascot Gold Cup, I think that the German bred Altano is currently being underrated by the bookies, at a current best price of 50/1 (51.00) with SkyBet. Andreas Wohler’s seven year old son of Galileo was last seen winning a Group 3 in his native land is being targeted at the 2013 Ascot Gold Cup.
He only falls down on one of the trends – he lacks a Group 2 success. But that said, he is regularly to be seen mopping up Group 3 races, with four wins and a second place finish from six Group 3 attempts. His one and only try in better company was a Group 2 in France where he finished last of eight, but I’m prepared to forgive him that run. He definitely looks worth a minimum stakes Each-Way nibble.
The 2013 Ascot Gold Cup
Thursday June 20th, 15:55
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