This weekend’s Premier League fixtures see Aston Villa travel to the Emirates Stadium to take on the in-form Gunners. Arsenal are riding high after six straight wins and moving above bitter rivals Spurs in the table, while the Villians have stuttered throughout what has been a frustrating campaign thus far. Is there any value in the betting markets for this clash?
Arsenal Win to Nil (5/4 @ Ladbrokes)
Arsenal are available at a price of 1.36 in the Match Odds market, and while they are obvious favourites given current form, they need to win the fixture 74% of the time to offer value at those prices. If there is any margin there, it is tiny – better opportunities lay elsewhere.
Aston Villa have drawn 8 on their travels this season, but goals have been difficult to come by, they have scored just 16 on the road in 14 games. That lack of threat away from home follows a similar trend to QPR (15 goals), Everton (13), West Brom (21), Swansea (15) and Bolton (14). All those clubs were beaten “to nil” by Arsenal at the Emirates.
With the Gunners already having won 5 of 14 games to nil, the price on them doing so again looks good. The visitors are toothless upfront, having scored 3 goals in total during their last 5 games, and this coincides with the loss of Darren Bent to injury and Robbie Keane’s return to the US when his loan deal came to an end. The recent FA Cup clash between the two ended 3-2 to the hosts – but both Bent and Keane played and that fixture took place when Arsenal were being written off in every quarter and looked at their lowest ebb – since then they have motored up to 3rd in the table.
The much maligned Gunners rear guard has actually only conceded 12 goals at home, and another shut out versus a less than potent attack, should ensure another 3 points.
5/4 about Arsenal winning to nil offers some value. Villa have lost every time they have played against one of the current top 4 and the Gunners have been under rated defensively at home.