There is no surer or faster way for those who bet on baseball to go broke than by underestimating the bookies and assuming that they can outsmart the house. This doesn’t mean that there is anything wrong with hunting value in odds and taking advantage of those rare occasions when the bookmakers misjudge a match. I feel that this is exactly what happens tonight when the worst teams in the West division of the National Leagues meet in the final game of the series.
Bet: Totals Over 7,5
Odds: bwin 2.00
Before this series began, San Diego was the team that scored the fewest runs in MLB and Petco Park is indeed a stadium that favors pitchers. This is the only rock solid argument for setting the Totals line at 7,5 and offering odds that revolve around 2,00 for the Overs. Everything else points into the opposite direction and I think that it is worth explaining the reasons that make betting on at least 8 runs to be scored a brilliant idea.
First of all we have the argument that opposes what the bookmakers regard as the untouchable, namely the high number of runs scored by Colorado. If San Diego is the second to last team in terms of runs scored, the Rockies are the second best scoring team after St Louis and they have plenty of games played against the Padres. The results from Game 1 and Game 2 speak for themselves because in both matches exactly 14 runs have been scored, which is almost twice as much as we need today for a winning bet.
Hardly the pitchers to worry about
Then we have the most important argument that has everything to do with the starting pitchers that meet tonight, because neither Friedrich or Ohlendorf can be regarded as aces in the sleeve. Their ERA of 5.85 means that they concede an average of 6 runs per game, therefore with the help of simple math we realize that these two pitchers alone could turn the Over 7,5 bet into a winner. Even if the bullpen pitchers play a flawless game, which is most unlikely, at least 8 runs should be scored with ease.
Sometimes form can be regarded as a factor in determining the probable number of runs scored, but once again we have no reason to worry. Friedrich won a single decision in his last 8 games and conceded a massive 7 runs per match, while his counterpart continues his shift between the bullpen and starting position. He might have won three decision this season, which represent more victories than what he got in the previous two seasons combined, but be has his teammates to thank for.
Going against the odds is the right thing to do, because these opportunities are rare and it would be a shame to miss out on them. Bwin offers 2,00 for the Over 7,5 so take advantage of these juicy odds.