In the first part of this mini-series, we have taken a look at some of the basics of tennis betting. Let’s take a step further then by looking at some of the advanced concepts that should be explored and thought through by everyone who is looking to get into some serious tennis betting action.
Tracking the Players
At this point, you probably already have a good idea about the strengths and weakness of many players, but is there anything that one could do in order to learn even more about the individual players? Well, even though one is going to risk missing something more fundamental, those who are keen on getting the complete picture of the individual players should consider following the live streams of the smaller tournaments and perhaps even the Twitter accounts of some of the players. The very best players might not be worth following, but hidden gems can be found when following the likes of Elena Vesnina or Janko Tipsarevic. Clues are rare and far between, but they can sometimes allow you to get some really juicy winners, making your efforts more than worth it.
Tipping the Big Upsets
One of the questions that everyone needs to be asking constantly is how one should tip the big upsets. We all know that there are going to be some along the way and that one doesn’t even have to have a particularly high strike rate in order to be incredibly profitable when betting on big upsets, but it does indeed sometimes look nearly impossible to predict when the lightning is going to strike. Alright, so what are at least some of the signs that one should be aware of when looking for big upsets? Fitness problems come to mind straight away (remember Rosol and Nadal?), suspicious form follows soon after that (remember Murray’s struggles after the Australian Open in 2011?), and match-up problems should be considered as well (remember Llodra and Berdych in the US Open a couple of years ago?). The underdog you want to back should also have at least a healthy dose of confidence (Nicolas Almagro, for example, is one of those players that often make mistakes whenever they have to win crucial points in big matches) – and the very same applies to you, as you shouldn’t be afraid of backing huge odds when you think that there might be some value in them.
Motivation and Priorities
Once you get to know the individual players a bit better, you will also soon start to discover their priorities in terms of the different events. Most players will want to do as well as possible all the time, of course, but let’s be honest – there are qualifiers to be played and there are big events that one needs to be prepared for. Therefore, keeping track of who is signed up for the various qualifiers (the main ATP website is the only really trustworthy source for that in all fairness) can give you something to build on whenever you are considering bets on some of the smaller tournaments, while keeping an eye on the various big names ahead of Grand Slams and other major events can also reveal some interesting betting opportunities from time to time. After all, nobody is going to risk injuries or fitness issues a few days before a Grand Slam – and the performances of players that aren’t fully fit or fully rested often reflect that.
Keeping Things Simple
Finally, you should also consider re-visiting your betting strategy from time to time or whenever your results start turning the wrong way. Perhaps you’ve started to take bets that don’t really make much sense in hindsight – after all, that is a problem that can trouble many tennis punters due to the fact that there is so much going on in tennis every single day. Or perhaps you’ve started to take the wrong sort of bets, picking handicaps where outrights would be more appropriate and trying to predict the total games lines where a simpler bet would do. Take a step back, miss a day or two, and think things through before heading back into action. And remember – keeping things simple is usually more effective than trying to get into the complications and losing track of things as a result of that.