A rare double Mercedes mechanical failure led to a victory for Red Bull and Verstappen last weekend and Vettel’s points finish took him a point ahead of Hamilton in the race for the Drivers Championship.

In Austria last weekend Mercedes qualified 1-2 and led the race until their tactical error followed by the gearbox/engine failures. These were the upgraded engines originally postponed for Canada and introduced in France which had looked to give Mercedes another leg up in their battle of the three leading constructors.

At Silverstone this weekend, any reliability concerns aside, the omens are good for Mercedes on a power-hungry track with several DRS overtaking opportunities. Lewis Hamilton has won the last four races here, and Mercedes the last five.
Whilst Mercedes should have the advantage here of course as well as the engine variable there is that of tyres, where all cars struggled in a hot race in Austria to make the compounds last, introducing an unexpected strategy element into the race.

That is unpredictable from race to race

Outright odds are

Hamilton 11/10
Vettel 7/2
Bottas 6/1
Verstappen 6/1
Ricciardo 10/1
Raikkonen 14/1

Hamilton should win and odds against seems reasonable, notwithstanding the range of variables at play this season