A look at various sub-markets ahead of the new Premier League season:
Let’s look first at the result last season:
And odds this season (each way ¼ four places available across the market)
As indicated by the prices the top two look very solid here. Kane shouldn’t be rotated, missed two spells of games last season through injury and still scored 29 goals. He takes penalties too. Lukaku scored 25 for Everton and has now moved to United where you would have to assume the likes of Pogba, Mkitharyan and Martial will create yet more chances for him.
Beyond the front two is where the question marks start. Aguero would be a big price if it wasn’t for the signing and emergence of Gabriel Jesus, and we must expect significant team rotation from Guardiola. Morata might play wide in a three behind Batshuayi. Lacazette has goals in Ligue one, but not in a big league. Sanchez would have to remain at Arsenal all season.
All things considered 9/2 with BetVictor each way on Lukaku looks an excellent bet.
Current prices are:
Crystal Palace 9/2
Obviously the first port of call here is the promoted sides with the big step up from one division to the other a constant theme. Looking at the prices though, I am surprised to see Burnley (solid last season especially at home) Watford under Marco Silva and Newcastle in the expected bottom six here.
My eyes alighted on Stoke City at 7-1 with Bet365.No signings this summer, the loss of Arnautovic and a very tough star. All spell trouble to me and I think 7-1 is a very big price indeed and a very viable alternative to sides at far shorter prices
Mark Hughes at 6-1 with BetVictor is probably an interesting price in the “first manager to leave” market too
Top half finish
Here I am looking for a side priced to finish in the bottom six to surprise on the upside, like say Burnley or Bournemouth last year.
Brighton at 10-1 with Betfred and Paddy Power appealed. They went up with a superb defensive unit that should allow them to pick up points from difficult games this season. Might struggle for goals but in Knockaert notably they have creativity for this division. The owners are likely to invest further if needed
Compare the 10-1 available with prices elsewhere to hit the top half. For example, Newcastle 3/1 and Swansea 5/1 set against Brighton at 10-1? The value is clear.