The Formula One season ehads to the famous streets of Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix this weekend

Recommendations

Lewis Hamilton to win Evens @ William Hill

Qualifying winning margin under 0.15 seconds Evens bet365

Fernando Alonso points finish 11/10 Paddy Power

The sixth race of the season takes place around the narrow streets of Monaco this weekend, an iconic event that is always a great spectacle even if action on the track sees little over-taking and a reliance on different strategies to produce a result unless you have the huge advantage of being on pole position, or there is changeable weather.

The shortest track on the calendar the race has an 80%+ chance of a safety car – there were two in the race last year – and championship leaders Lewis Hamilton and his rival Nico Rosberg will be hoping to get clear early on. 9 of the last 10 pole-position drivers have gone on to take the race victory.

In the previous race in Barcelona Nico Rosberg got his season on track with a pole to flag win to close the gap between him and Hamilton to just 20 points. He is also somewhat of a Monaco specialist, second and two wins in the last three years and the battle for pole here is going to be one of the most intense qualifying sessions of the season, given how vital it is to start at the front.

In terms of prices for the race win Rosberg, who until Spain was dominated by Hamilton this season, is as short as 11/8 to triumph in Moncaco where he was available at 7/2 for the last race and Hamilton, prohibitively odds-on all season, can now be backed at Evens with William Hill for Monaco. On value relative to what has been on offer for the pair all season, prefer I Hamilton here. There aren’t going to be many races this season where he does not start odds-on and in Monaco it is his race (the Mercedes drivers alternate race to race) to chooose whether to go out first or second in Q3 qualifying. Get that decision right, and he will have the advantage to win pole.

Winner market aside Bet365 offer a qualifying winning margin market – the last 3 years the margin has been 0.059, 0.091 and 0.080, and it is Even money under 0.15 seconds here. I think that price should be odds-on for such a crucial battle where margins between first and second should be very fine

In the points finish market McLaren, so disappointing all year, bring big upgrades packages to Monaco, a track where any Honda power disadvantage compared to the rest of the field is minimised. McLaren progressed slightly in Spain, qualifying above the Lotus and Sauber drivers. We have to assume the car’s handling is significantly improved by the upgrades but both drivers are odds against to get into the points, Alonso 11/10 with paddypower and Jenson Button 17/11 with bwin. I like Alonso, though either are backable here

Recommendations

Lewis Hamilton to win Evens @ William Hill

Qualifying winning margin under 0.15 seconds Evens bet365

Fernando Alonso points finish 11/10 Paddy Power