The excitement of the Grand National may be dying down for another year, but we still have the Scottish equivalent at Ayr to come on Saturday 20th April. We’ve taken a look at the 2013 Scottish Grand National field and picked out an interesting contender that’s currently priced at 14/1 (15.00) with Coral. Read on for the full story…
By taking a look at recent renewals of the Scottish Grand National, we can identify key trends and build up a profile of a winner of the race. Here are the trends that we’ve identified.
- 0 of the last 12 Scottish National winners had taken part in the Aintree equivalent
It’s well documented how tough a race the Grand National at Aintree is, so it’s understandable that any horse lining up there is going to struggle to run well in another stamina testing marathon just 14 days later. Of that last 40 horses to try in this time period, just 1 placed.
- 16 of the last 23 Scottish Grand National winners were aged 8 to 10
Last year’s winner Merigo took the race aged 11, but he always goes well here having previously finished second and first in the race. Excluding him, just one of the last ten winners was outside of this range.
- All of the last 12 Scottish Grand National winners had contested 3 to 6 races that season
- 11 of the last 12 winners had run in the past 60 days
- 11 of the last 12 Scottish National victors finished in the front 6 last time out
We can glean from these trends that we need our Scottish National selection to be race sharp but not over-worked, and in some semblence of form coming into the Ayr marathon.
- All of the last 12 Scottish Grand National winners had won a race over 3m or further
- All of the last 12 winners had won at Class 3 or better
- 12 of the last 13 winners had fallen/unseated no more than once
A certain amount of ability is required to win a Scottish Grand National, as illustrated by these trends.
- 10 of the last 11 Scottish Grand National winners carried home 10st 9lbs or less
The weights haven’t yet been published for the 2013 Scottish National, but if you like to place you bets nearer to the time, this is an important trend to consider.
By applying the above trends to the 2013 Scottish Grand National field, we can trim it to just four: Hold On Julio, Lively Baron, Rose Of The Moon and Quentin Collonges.
Of these four potential Scottish National winners, I like Henry Daly’s Quentin Collonges best of all. Currently rated a 14/1 chance with Coral, the nine year old grey stayed on gamely to beat a couple of Scottish National entrants last time out in a Class 2, and although he goes up 8lbs for that, his jumping style and prominent racing tactics will be well suited to the race. The only thing to worry about with him is the ground – he will need it on the quicker side, so don’t invest too much until nearer the time.
For those of you that like a bigger priced selection, I would suggest a small Each-Way play on Lively Baron, who will go any type of ground, has a course victory under his belt (admittedly over hurdles) and will probably line up in the race, as he was aimed at the Kim Muir at the Festival but didn’t get in. He has been described as a bit of a “monkey” by trainer Donald McCain, but he’s been improved for the removal of headgear and runs off an attractive mark. The eight year old is currently a best price of 33/1 (34.00) with Bet365.
The 2013 Scottish Grand National
Saturday April 20th, 15:50
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