The Northumberland Plate is one of the most valuable two mile handicaps in the world, worth £86,226 to last year’s winner Ile De Re (pictured). The seven year old grey will bid to retain his title in 2013, but we’ve found a couple of others in the lineup that we prefer. Both are currently priced at 16/1 (17.00) with Bet365.
Having studied recent winners of the Northumberland Plate, we have built up a profile of what is required to win the race. Here are the important trends:
Key Northumberland Plate Trends
- All of the last 14 Northumberland Plate winners had run at least twice that year (Flat and National Hunt)
- All of the last 14 winners had run in the previous 55 days
- 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the front 5 last time out
These Northumberland Plate trends suggest that we should be backing a horse that is race sharp and in good form.
- 12 of the last 14 winners of the Northumberland Plate winners carried 8st 11lbs or less to victory
We should be looking to back a horse that’s handicapped well enough to win the race; too far down the weights suggests insufficient ability, while a horse that’s too high in the weights is going to struggle over the 2m trip.
- 13 of the last 14 Northumberland Plate winners had previously scored over 14f or further
- 12 of the last 14 winners had at least placed in a Class 2 race (or better)
- 11 of the last 14 winners had placed in a race worth at least £34,000
This set of Northumberland Plate trends tells us that we ought to be looking at horses with a certain amount of class and ability, as well as winning form over more extreme trips.
Three horses amongst the current Northumberland Plate entries meet all of the above trends: Ingleby Spirit, Lieutenant Miller and Mubaraza.
I am not particularly keen on the latter of the three. When you look at the four year old’s record, he has achieved very little – in fact, he only qualifies as a trends horse based on his last time out effort where he finished fourth in the 19 runner Ascot Stakes, the only time he’s achieved a place in a race of any value. I would need more than his current best price of 20/1 (21.00) with BetVictor.
In my mind, Ingleby Spirit and Lieutenant Miller are both better options for the 2013 Northumberland Plate. Both are currently priced at 16/1 (17.00) with Bet365 and I think that represents some value, given their respective profiles.
The former, a six year old gelding trained by Richard Fahey, has won at 2m over hurdles and was last seen finishing a half length runner up to Address Unknown in the valuable Chester Cup. Come the day of the Northumberland Plate, Ingleby Spirit will be 2lbs better off than the winner that day, which suggests he’s well enough handicapped to reverse that form.
As for Lieutenant Miller, a seven year old inmate at Nicky Henderson’s Seven Barrows yard, he was last seen finishing a length ahead of Mubaraza in the Ascot Stakes to keep up a decent record on the flat that reads 13213. He didn’t really tear up any trees earlier in his career over obstacles, but the Henderson team might just have a useful flat horse on their hands.
At the current prices, both look like solid Each-Way bets for the 2013 Northumberland Plate.
The 2013 Northumberland Plate
Saturday June 29th, 15:15
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