Captain Dunne, Epsom DashThe Epsom Dash is a Class 2 Heritage Handicap that features on the Derby day under card, which will take place on Saturday June 1st 2013. We’ve lined up a 14/1 (15.00) chance (pictured, light blue silks) with Bet365 that looks well weighted to run a big race in the 2013 Epsom Dash.

We’ve cast our expert eye over recent winners of the Epsom Dash and have built up a profile of what is required to win the Class 2 Heritage Handicap. Here are the key Epsom Dash trends:

Key Epsom Dash Trends

Recent Form

  • 11 of the last 12 Epsom Dash winners had taken part in between 1 and 4 races that season
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run in the past 28 days
  • 9 of the last 12 winners of the Epsom Dash had yet to win that season

Our Epsom Dash selection should be race sharp but not campaigned too heavily, and interestingly, the trends would have us believe that out of form horses should be preferred. This is likely due to the fact that recent winners will have been pushed higher up the handicap, so we ought to be looking for a well handicapped sort.

Past Form

  • All of the last 12 Epsom Dash winners had previously won over 5f
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won a race worth at least £10,000

It goes without saying that a horse with winning form over 5f is going to be better placed to win a Heritage Handicap over 5f than one with no winning form. Furthermore, the trends illustrate that a certain amount of class is required to win an Epsom Dash.

Age

  • 9 of the last 12 Epsom Dash winners were aged 6 or older

These Epsom Dash trends suggest a bias towards the older runners. 6 year olds perform best of all, with five wins in the past 12 years.

Summary

After applying the above trends to the 2013 Epsom Dash field (which currently stands at 42 entries) we can thin it out to just six horses: Humidor, Judge ‘N Jury, Captain Dunne, Tax Free, Doctor Parkes and Indian Trail.

I would immediately rule out the David Nicholls trained pair of Indian Trail and Tax Free, despite the trainer’s excellent record in these big field sprint handicaps. Although the trends suggest a bias towards the older horses, I think that it’s unlikely that we’ll see a 13 or 11 year old winning the 2013 Epsom Dash.

Humidor meets all of the Epsom Dash trends and is also 6 years old, but he looks to be well within the grip of the handicapper. He’s currently second in the weights and is without a win since winning a Listed race in September 2011, a victory that I think he is still paying for. Even at a current best price of 14/1 (15.00) with Bet365, I can’t be tempted.

I would also rule out Judge ‘N Jury, a horse whose two career visits to Epsom were both for this race; he finished a creditable fourth way back in 2010, but his effort last year saw him finish a well beaten 17th of 20. This year he will line up off a mark of 8lbs higher than on that day, so it seems unlikely that he’ll feature in the shakeup.

The Stuart Williams trained Doctor Parkes hasn’t won on turf since May 2011 and hasn’t really been setting the world alight, but he could be woth a small Each-Way nibble at current best odds of 33/1 (34.00) with BetVictor; however, I am nailing my colours to the mast of Captain Dunne.

Tim Easterby’s 8 year old won this race two years ago and although he hasn’t won since, that experience of the testing Epsom track stands him in better stead than most of the other trends horses. He’s now attractively weighted too, being 10lbs lower in the handicap than when he last won this race, and his second place finish on his seasonal reappearance suggests that he’s in good heart. At a current best price of 14/1 (15.00) with Bet365, he is may Each-Way betting tip for the 2013 Epsom Dash.

Advice

The 2013 Epsom Dash
Saturday June 1st, 15:15

Captain Dunne (Each-Way) @ 14/1 (15.00) with Bet365

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