For our latest Cheltenham Festival preview, we’ve cast our eye over the 2013 RSA Chase, the Grade 1 three mile steeplechase for novice chasers aged five or older that takes place on the second day. Dynaste (pictured) is the hot favourite for the race (currently a best price of 9/4 [3.25]) but there’s one key trend against the seven year old. We’d prefer to err on the side of value and have spotted a 25/1 (26.00) chance with Bet365 that might spring a surprise…
As always, we’ve attempted to pick out the key trends from looking over recent winners of the race, in order to build a profile of a potential RSA Chase winner. Here are the findings:
- 11 of the last 13 RSA Chase winners were aged 7
The winner of the RSA Chase is generally aged seven, so I’m happy to focus purely on the seven year olds amongst the 2013 field. The exceptions to this trend were aged five and eight.
- All of the last 48 winners had raced in the same calendar year as the Cheltenham Festival
- 24 of the last 25 winners finished in the front two last time out
Quite simply, we want our horse to arrive at the Cheltenham Festival at the top of its game. It should be race sharp and in good form.
- All of the last 12 RSA Chase winners had already won over 2m 5f or further
- All of the last 10 winners had placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
- All of the last 19 winners had contested 3 or more chases
With the RSA Chase being such a test of stamina, there should already be a certain amount of form in the book that shows our selection will be able to cut it over longer distances. Furthermore, we want a horse that’s classy enough to win an RSA Chase, as well as one that’s experienced enough.
- None of the last 18 Feltham Novices’ Chase winners were successful in the RSA Chase
This speaks for itself really. Dynaste is the one carrying the burden this year and he follows in some fairly illustrious hoofprints, with the likes of Grands Crus, Joe Lively and of course, Long Run, all failing to follow up their Feltham successes in the RSA.
The two horses that tick most of the boxes for me in the 2013 RSA Chase field are Super Duty and Texas Jack.
I like Texas Jack. His second in the PJ Moriarty Chase behind Boston Bob is a nice piece of form and the best price of 33/1 (34.00) being offered by BetVictor looks tasty at first glance, but trainer Noel Meade has publicly stated that he’d prefer to swerve the Festival and go to Punchestown instead.
With that in mind then, it has to be a tentative Each-Way nibble on the best price offered about Super Duty, which is currently 25/1 (26.00) with Bet365. I like the fact that he has already registered a win at Cheltenham and his display that day on unsuitable bottomless ground convinced trainer Donald McCain that he’s probably more of an RSA horse than a Jewson horse (he is entered in both, be warned).
He has since gone close (beaten just a head) in a Grade 2, again on softer ground, and he looks like the type that could progress and be involved in the RSA shake up.
The RSA Chase
Wednesday 13th March 2013, 14:40
Super Duty (Each-Way) @ 25/1 (26.00) with Bet365
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