25 runners go to post in the Aintree Foxhunters Chase on Thursday, the opening day of the 2013 Grand National meeting at the famous Liverpool horse racing venue. We’ve previewed the race and picked out a strong fancy that’s currently priced at 11/2 (6.50) with Coral. For the full story on this, plus all of the 2013 Foxhunters Chase trends analysis, read on…
We’ve taken a look at the past twelve winners of the Foxhunters Chase at Aintree to pick out the key trends and build a profile of a likely winner. Here’s what we came across.
Official Rating / Weight
- All of the last 12 winners of the Aintree Foxhunters Chase were aged 9 to 12
The first of our trends suggest that we need to concentrate on horses aged nine to twelve. They have not only won all of the last twelve renewals of the race, but horses aged 13 or older and 8 or younger have just four places from a total of 60 runners in that same period of time.
- All of the last 12 Aintree Foxhunters Chase winners had won over 2m 4f (or further)
The Aintree Foxhunters Chase is run over 2m 5f 110y. All of the past 12 winners had proven that they can cope with that kind of trip by winning over at least 2m 4f.
- 11 of the last 12 winners of the race raced prominently
This is an interesting trend. Due to the testing nature of the fences, it would make sense that those racing prominently (preferably leading) would be in a better position to win the race. Jumping a fence is much easier with no other horses blocking your path or bumping into you!
- 11 of the last 12 Aintree Foxhunters Chase winners had won a Class 3 race (or better)
A certain amount of ability is required of an Aintree Foxhunters Chase winner, as illustrated by this trend.
- 11 of the last 12 winners of the Aintree Foxhunters Chase had run in the past 45 days
- 11 of the last 12 winners had registered 1 or 2 wins that season
- 10 of the last 12 winners had won either of their last 2 runs
These trends tell us that our Foxhunters Chase selection should be race sharp and in form, but we don’t want our selection to have won too often. It should really be peaking for this race, not before.
After applying the above trends to the 25 strong 2013 Aintree Foxhunters Chase field, just two horses fit the bill – Earth Dream and Gwanako.
The former could be an interesting Each-Way bet at a best price of 40/1 (41.00, Bet365) but the John Ferguson trained ten year old doesn’t make a great deal of appeal based on his last two efforts, particularly the last one, where he was pulled up in the Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival. He was poor that day and will have been targeted at the race, so I can’t be too keen on him for the Aintree equivalent.
The Paul Nicholls trained Gwanako on the other hand, did not feature at the Festival and this ten year old will be in tip top shape for the race. The veteran has bags of Aintree experience, including a win over the National fences in the Topham Chase, way back in 2008, so we know he has the class and experience required to win the Foxhunters Chase at Aintree.
The current best price of 11/2 (6.50) with Coral is not massive, but it still represents some value.
The 2013 Aintree Foxhunters Chase
Thursday April 4th, 15:40
Gwanako @ 11/2 (6.50) with Coral
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