The 2,000 Guineas is the first classic of the British Flat season and with just ten days to go until the big race at Newmarket, we’d better get stuck into the race. The current market leader is Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach (best price 11/8 [2.38] with Paddy Power) but we’ve found a colt to take him on with (pictured). To find out more, read our preview of the 2013 2,000 Guineas.
As we do with every big race, we’ve cast our eye over recent winners of the 2,000 Guineas to pick out any trends that emerge. We have then applied those to the 2013 renewal of the Newmarket classic in an attempt to thin out the field. Here are our findings ahead of the 2013 2,000 Guineas:
- All of the last 22 2,000 Guineas winners were sired by stallions with a Racing Post stamina index of at least 8.0
- All of the last 14 winners were sired by a Group 1 winner (or the equivalent US Grade 1)
These trends suggest that our 2,000 Guineas selection needs to be well bred, with a certain degree of stamina in the pedigree.
- 16 of the last 17 winners of the 2,000 Guineas had contested 5 or fewer career races
- 15 of the last 16 winners had contested a Group race
- 13 of the last 14 winners has won over 7f or 1m
- 12 of the last 14 2,000 Guineas winners had won on their debut as a 2 year old
From these trends we can see that our ideal selection should have already proven its stamina for the 2,000 Guineas trip to some extent, while not being too heavily raced. Furthermore, we want a horse that’s good enough not only to win first time out, but that’s regarded highly enough to have contested Group races.
- All of the last 17 winners of the 2,000 Guineas finished in the front 3 last time out
- 14 of those 17 had actually won LTO
Our 2,000 Guineas selection should be coming to Newmarket in form, according to these trends.
After looking at the 2,000 Guineas trends, there is one clear winner – Richard Hannon’s Toronado. Sired by a Derby winner in High Chaparral, the bay colt is certainly well enough bred to win the 2,000 Guineas, and although he didn’t beat much in the Craven, he won it convincingly enough. Trainer Richard Hannon also claimed two of the of the other three major 2,000 Guineas trials last week, suggesting that his stable is right at the top of its game.
As no other colts tick all of the boxes when it comes to 2,000 Guineas trends, the 11/4 (3.75) currently on offer with Coral seems like a good bet to me.
For the record, antepost favourite Dawn Approach only falls down on one of these trends, having competed in six races so far in his career. Some may consider this insufficient to rule the son of New Approach out of contention for the 2013 2,000 Guineas, but at a current best price of 11/8 (2.38) with Paddy Power, he doesn’t represent much value, so I’d rather side with the colt that ticks all of the boxes.
The 2013 2,000 Guineas
Saturday May 4th, 15:50
Toronado @ 11/4 (3.75) with Coral
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