Homecoming Queen, 1000 Guineas, Horse RacingThe 1,000 Guineas is the second classic of the flat season, which takes place at Newmarket and is open to three year old fillies only. Last year, the race was won by Aidan O’Brien’s Homecoming Queen (pictured) at 25/1. The 2013 renewal takes place on Sunday 5th May and we reckon another big priced filly can do the buisness; a 33/1 (34.00) chance, courtesy of Bet365. Want to know our betting tip for the big race? Read on…

We’ve looked over recent winners of the 1,000 Guineas in an attempt to identify any patterns or trends that might emerge. Once we’ve found them, we can use them to build a profile of a likely 1,000 Guineas winner and see which fillies in the 2013 field fit that bill.

Key Trends

Past Form

  • All of the last 12 1,000 Guineas winners ran twice or more as two year olds
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least two career races

These trends suggest that our 1,000 Guineas selection should have enough experience to win the Newmarket classic.

Ability

  • 10 of the last 12 1,000 Guineas winners placed on debut
  • 10 of the last 12 winners of the 1,000 Guineas had won a Class 1 race

Obviously to win any classic, a horse must be talented. These two trends give us a pointer as to what signs to look for in terms of ability, ahead of the 2013 1,000 Guineas.

Current Form

  • 9 of the last 12 winners of the 1,000 Guineas won last time out

This trend speaks for itself, showing a bias towards last time out winners.

Age

  • 3 of the last 12 1,000 Guineas winners were born after the first week in April

Obviously the 1,000 Guineas is only open to three year olds, but at such a young age a few months can make a real difference, both mentally and physically. This trend would appear to support that theory.

Summary

The two fillies that tick all of the above boxes are Aidan O’Brien’s Magical Dream and the Mikel Delzangles trained What A Name.

Of the pair, What A Name has probably achieved the most but it’s very difficult to rule out any O’Brien trained horse in a classic and I’m not put off by the price of Magical Dream (currently 33/1 with Bet365) as we’ve seen winners at 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 in the last four years (the latter of which was also trained by the master of Ballydoyle.

Whilst I wouldn’t attempt to talk anyone out of a bet on What A Name – currently a best price of 11/2 (6.50) with William Hill – I will stick my neck out and plump for Magical Dream as the value pick in the 2013 1000 Guineas.

Advice

The 2013 1,000 Guineas
Sunday May 5th, 15:50

Magical Dream (Each-Way) @ 33/1 (34.00) with Bet365

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