Aidan O'Brien 2012 Racing Post TrophyAidan O’Brien (pictured) is mob handed for this year’s Racing Post Trophy, Doncaster’s Group One race for two year old colts and fillies. He has the favourite Battle Of Marengo among the entries, but the betting is tight at the top of the market. What will win the race? Read on and you just might find out…

Key Trends

As ever, we’ll take a look over past Racing Post Trophy winners in a bid to build up a profile that we can apply to the 2012 line up, in order to thin out the numbers. Here are the key trends that emerge:

Past Form

  • All of the last 12 Racing Post Trophy winners had contested four or fewer races
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had already scored over 7f or 8f

These Racing Post Trophy trends suggest that we should be looking for a lightly raced type, that has already won over the trip (or a furlong shorter.

Recent Form

  • 11 of the last 12 Racing Post Trophy winners finished in the front three last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run in the past 40 days

Clearly we should be looking for a Racing Post Trophy selection that is race sharp and in some semblance of form, according to these two trends.

Pedigree

  • 11 of the last 12 Racing Post Trophy winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of between 9.2 and 11.7

This trend suggests that our Racing Post Trophy selection should be bred specifically for this kind of trip.

Summary

Applying the above trends to the 2012 Racing Post Trophy field still leaves us with five options: Battle Of Marengo, Eye Of The Storm, Kingsbarns, Magician and Trading Leather.

It’s tough to separate any of these but Battle Of Marengo won the Beresford Stakes which has proved a real pointer to past winners of the Racing Post Trophy, with two Beresford winners going on to land the Racing Post Trophy in recent years as well as another finishing second. For me, this is enough to give a tentative nod to the favourite.

At a current best price of 3/1 (4.00) with Paddy Power, the colt may not actually be a bad bet. His three career wins have come on Heavy, Good to Soft and Good ground, so he’ll be able to handle whatever the weather throws up this weekend (and the forecast doesn’t look great), and the favourite does tend to do well in the race, with six of the last ten jollies going on to do the business.

Some may question why O’Brien has supplemented Kingsbarns for the race, suggesting that he didn’t have much faith in the other entries (the selection included) but I don’t buy into that. I just think they’re making absolutely sure that they have all the bases covered, what with the weather forecast for this weekend. Kingsbarns won his one and only race on soft ground and he looks a real talent, so why not throw him in just in case?

Advice

2012 Racing Post Trophy

Saturday October 27th, 15:05
Battle Of Marengo @ 3/1 (4.00) with Paddy Power

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