Grands Crus Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012This year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on November 17th 2012 and looks set to be a quality renewal, with the likes of Grands Crus (pictured) among the many Cheltenham Festival regulars in the line up. But can the aforementioned grey, who is antepost favourite for the race, justify favouritism? We’ve taken a look over the key Paddy Power Gold Cup trends in a bid to answer that very question…

Key Trends

Looking at recent renewals of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, we can easily identify some key trends that emerge from the winners and we can use these to build a profile of a potential winner, to help us make our 2012 selection:

Age

  • 11 of the last 12 horses to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup were aged 6 to 8
  • 9 of the last 12 were aged 6 or 7

According to these trends we should be looking to a horse aged between 6 and 8 for a potential 2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup selection, preferably aged 6 or 7.

Official Rating

  • None of the last 12 horses to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup were officially rated 135 or lower
  • 7 of the last 12 were rated 146 or better

These trends show that only horses of a certain ability can win the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Quite simply, the higher rated the horse, the better.

Past Form

  • All of the last 12 Paddy Power Gold Cup winners had won a Chase at Class 2 or better
  • All of the last 12 had run in no more than six handicap chases
  • 9 of the last 12 had won at Cheltenham racecourse

According to these trends, we need to be looking for a Paddy Power Gold Cup selection that is relatively unexposed, that has a certain amount of class and as the Prestbury Park undulations are so notoriously testing, we would prefer our selection to have won at Cheltenham in the past.

Trainer

  • 6 of the last 12 Paddy Power Gold Cup winning horses came from the Pipe stable

Perhaps this should be taken with a pinch of salt, as five of those horses were trained by Pipe Senior, but David was responsible for last year’s victor and as a family they clearly know how to train a Paddy Power Gold Cup winner. That must count for something.

Summary

With all of these trends in mind, the best choice for a 2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup bet is clearly the favourite, Grands Crus. The seven year old grey oozes class and ability and it’s very hard to see past him. The Pipe factor is a bonus and although not the biggest of prices (currently a best price of 7/2 (4.50) with the race sponsors Paddy Power) he looks to have a great chance.

For those looking for a bigger priced Each-Way alternative, you could do a lot worse than Nick Henderson’s Quantitativeeasing at a current best price of 20/1 (21.00), also with sponsors Paddy Power.

Advice

2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Saturday November 17th, 14:35
Grands Crus @ 7/2 (4.50) with Paddy Power

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