Kauto Star, King George, Kempton TipsThe William Hill sponsored King George VI Chase has been dominated by the great Kauto Star (pictured) in recent years, but with the recent retirement of National Hunt racing’s superstar horse, the2012 renewal could be a wide open affair. So who will triumph? Read on and you might well find out…

Key Trends

By taking a look at recent winners of Kempton’s big race, we can attempt to build a profile of a potential King George winning horse. Here are the major trends that emerge from analysis of the past 12 winners of the King George VI Chase.

Past Form

  • 11 of the last 12 King George winners had already won two or more Grade 1 chases
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won over 3m (or further)
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won over the course and distance

These trends suggest that our 2012 King George VI Chase selection needs to have proven form over the testing 3m trip (and preferably at the course) but more importantly, the horse needs to have real class and some serious ability to win the race.

Recent Form

  • 10 of the last 12 horses to win the King George VI Chase won last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run in the past 40 days

According to these trends, our 2012 King George VI Chase horse should be relatively fresh and in good form. The two exceptions to the ‘won last time out trend’ both placed, so don’t discount horses that ran 2nd or 3rd last time out in good races.

Breeding

  • 8 of the last 12 winners of the King George VI Chase were French bred

This is a pretty self explanatory trend. The other four winners of the King George VI Chase were Irish bred.

Summary

Once you apply the above trends to the 2012 King George field, there can only really be one winner – Long Run. Nicky Henderson’s charge won the delayed 2010 renewal of this race en route to Gold Cup glory at Cheltenham, but has never really got back to that sort of level. But as we can see, the trends suggest that proven form over the track and trip is important and the horse clearly has the class required to win the race.

Long Run is currently the antepost favourite at a best price of 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365 so it’s far from a brave tip, but sometimes it’s tough to argue with the facts and Long Run does look a very likely winner of the 2012 King George; particularly when you consider that the current second favourite is Cue Card, a horse that has never even attempted a race further than 2m 4f and whose highest profile success over fences is a victory in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup.

Advice

2012 King George VI Chase

Wednesday December 26th, 15:10
Long Run @ 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365

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