Newmarket’s July Cup is one of the most prestigious sprint races around and always makes for a fantastic spectacle. We’ve identified a potential winner at a rather generous looking 26.00 (25/1) with our friends at William Hill…
As usual, we’re taking a look at trends that have emerged from past winners of the July Cup to build up the profile of a potential winner. Here are the trends that look to be most important:
- 11 of the last 12 July Cup winners had won a race over 6f or 7f in their career
- 10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a Group race
A certain amount of class is required of a potential July Cup winner, as indicated by the fact that 10 of the last 12 winners had already won at Group level. Of those that hadn’t, one had finished second in a Group race while the other had never tackled one, but had won a Listed race.
Only one of the last 12 winners had never won at either the July Cup trip of 6f or 7f. This suggests we should be avoiding out and out sprinters, as well as the more staying types.
- All of the last 12 July Cup winners had run in the past 30 days
- 11 of the last 12 had run at Royal Ascot last time out
These trends suggest that we should be looking towards a horse that is both race sharp and thought of as good enough to be lining up at the Royal meeting.
- Just one horse aged 6 or older has won the July Cup in the past 12 years
There are no strong trends to suggest the winner of the July Cup should be a specific age, but only one horse aged six or older has won in the last 12 years, from 42 runners. In all, 186 horses have lined up, so a little under 23% of the runners fall into this age group, but they have returned just 8.33% of the winners. This suggests we should be focusing on those horses aged five or younger.
By applying all of the above trends to the 2012 July Cup field, we can reduce it to just six: the O’Brien pair Excelebration and Power, plus Society Rock, Krypton Factor, Moonlight Cloud and antepost favourite Bated Breath.
I’d be keen to oppose the O’Brien pair as I am not convinced the 6f trip is right for either of these Guineas winning horses. I also think that Bated Breath is too short at a best price of 5.00 (Stan James). It was a fine effort to come second in the King’s Stand at Ascot on softer ground and the horse was second in last year’s July Cup, but having been stung by a couple of short priced losers lately, I’m keen to find a bit of value.
Society Rock (best price 11.00 Stan James) ran well behind Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, but only after missing the break. Trainer James Fanshawe has spoken of plans for intensive stalls work and has said that he will only run the horse if he is totally happy with how that goes. For me, this makes Society Rock too much of a risk.
Moonlight Cloud got closest of all to Black Caviar in that race, but is another that’s a little short for me. At a best price of 7.00 with Coral (but 4.00 favourite with (Stan James) I would still rather look elsewhere.
For me, the value lies with Krypton Factor (pictured above). During the Diamond Jubilee, both Krypton Factor and Moonlight Cloud raced fairly central where the ground was much softer. Once switched to the rail, Moonlight Cloud took off, while Krypton Factor, who didn’t exactly have the run of the race, stayed central and did rally a little, finishing only two lengths away.
Despite this, the difference in price is significant. William Hill are currently offering a best price of 26.00 about Krypton Factor winning the July Cup, which in my mind at least, is insulting.
It’s also worth considering that the Bahrain based horse raced in Singapore last month and Dubai at the end of March, with the trainer putting a disappointing showing at Kranji down to the horse not traveling so well. A few extra weeks being settled in Britain ahead of the July Cup might well do the four year old some good. In any case, it has to be worth a few pounds of anyone’s money at a whopping 26.00 (25/1).
The July Cup
Saturday 14th July 2012, 15:20
Krypton Factor @ 26.00 (William Hill)
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