Irish 1000 Guineas PreviewAfter a truly impressive performance in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas, Homecoming Queen is odds on with many firms to complete the double in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday 27th May. But is her best price of 2.10 (Bet365) buying money, or will there be a surprise horse amongst the field, just like Homecoming Queen herself earlier this month…?

Race History

The Irish 1000 Guineas takes place three weeks after the English version at the Curragh, and was inaugurated back in 1922. Many horses compete in both races and the most successful horses often go on to success in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.

In 2004, Attraction became the first horse to complete a double by landing both the English and the Irish 1000 Guineas (also winning the Coronation Stakes) while Finsceal Beo also went on to achieve the feat in 2007.

Key Trends

So what will win the 2012 Irish 1000 Guineas? Let’s take a look at the trends that emerge from analysing recent winners of the race, and see if any of them can be applied to this year’s field.

Past Form

  • All of the last ten Irish 1000 Guineas winners had previously scored over 7f or further
  • 9 of the past ten winners had contested one or two races that season, before heading to the Curragh

By looking at these two trends, we can see that a likely Irish 1000 Guineas winner should ideally be travelling to the Curragh race sharp, with proven stamina. The last thing we should be looking for is an unproven sprinter or a horse returning from a layoff.

Class

  • 7 of the last 10 winners of the Irish 1000 Guineas had won a race at either Group or Listed level
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had placed in a Group One race

Although these two trends aren’t quite perfect, a good 70% of the last ten fillies to land the Irish 1000 Guineas have gone to the Curragh with proven class, having won at least a Listed race, while 70% have also lined up having already placed in a Group One. With that in mind, it makes sense to focus on the classier horses amongst the 2012 field.

Breeding

  • 9 of the last ten Irish 1000 Guineas winners had a Group One winning sire
  • The sire of all of the past ten winners had a stamina index of 7.7f or greater

Pedigree often proves so important in the big races and the 2012 Irish 1000 Guineas is no exception – 90% of the past ten winners of the race were sired by a horse that had won a Group One during his racing career. Additionally, the sires of the past ten winners all had a minimum stamina index of 7.7f.

Summary

After applying these trends to the 2012 Irish 1000 Guineas field, the two horses we are left with are Maybe and Samitar.

Aidan O’Brien’s Maybe disappointed when favourite for the Newmarket version of this race, though to be fair to jockey Joseph O’Brien, he may well have been taken by surprise at Ryan Moore and Homecoming Queen’s impressive effort when making all.

Given another crack, and knowing exactly that capabilities of the respective fillies, Maybe and O’Brien might well be able to reverse that form, but there’s a big doubt about the participation of the filly. Just two firms are betting on Maybe to win the race (with a run), of which Bet365 are offering the best price of the two at a meagre 3.00. With that paltry price in mind, plus the fact that she might not even line u in the race, it may well be better to look elsewhere for the winner of the 2012 Irish 1000 Guineas.

Although Samitar has disappointed on both of her starts this season, she took on the colts in her seasonal reappearance over what looks like an inadequate 6f trip and wasn’t exactly disgraced, before finishing well down in the French Guineas equivalent.

Her two year old form reads well though, having won the 7f Tattersall’s Millions Two Year Old Fillies’ Trophy and having gone down by just a head in a Newmarket Group One over a mile. At a best price of 23.00 (Stan James), she looks like a really interesting outsider for the 2012 Irish 1000 Guineas and as Britain’s only representative in the race, it’s my patriotic duty to support her!

If trainer Mick Channon has her spot on, I’m confident that Samitar can run a big race at a big price. If Maybe lines up in the race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her reverse form with Homecoming Queen, but I’ll be taking an Each-Way punt and a bit of value in the form of Samitar instead.

Advice

The Irish 1000 Guineas
Saturday 27th May 2012, 15:40

Samitar (Each-Way) @ 23.00 (Stan James)