Carruthers, Hennessy Gold CupLast year’s Hennessy Gold Cup was won by Carruthers (pictured) and at the moment, there are still 35 horses entered in the 2012 renewal. But who will win this valuable Grade 3 Handicap Chase in 2012? We have cast an analytically eye over the card and we like two in particular, the second of which is currently priced at 16/1 (17.00) with Coral

Key Trends

Here are the key trends to emerge from analysis of the last 12 Hennessy Gold Cup winners. We can use these as a guide to thin out the 52 strong 2012 Hennessy field.

Age

  • 11 of the last 12 horses to win the Hennessy Gold Cup were aged 6 to 8
  • 6 of the last 12 horses to win were aged 7

These trends clearly show that we ought to be focusing on the younger horses in the Hennessy Gold Cup, with a preference for those aged 7.

Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 12 Hennessy Gold Cup winners were officially rated 142 or higher

Better rated horses are the ones to follow in the Hennessy, as the majority of recent winners were rated 142 or better. There isn’t much of a bias in terms of weight carried though, with 6 of the last 12 winners carrying 11st or more, and the other obviously 6 carrying less than 11st.

Past Form

  • All of the last 12 horses to win the Hennessy Gold Cup had won a Class 2 chase (or higher)
  • 11 of the last 12 Hennessy winners had won over 25f or further
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had raced in no more than 3 Handicap Chases
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won at least half of their chase starts

Proven stamina is an essential quality in our 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup selection, as 11 of the past 12 winners had already won over 25f or further. The one exception to that trend had placed in a past renewal of the Hennessy (run over 26f). Another absolute must is a Class 2 (or better) chase success, as every on of the past 12 Hennessy victors had achieved this.

We should also be looking to avoid over-exposed horses, as 10 of the last 12 winners had only lined up in three or fewer Handicap Chases, while 8 of the last 12 had run in a total of 3 to 6 chases (handicap or otherwise). 8/12 had also won at least 50% of their chase starts, suggesting that certain amount of ability will be required to win the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup.

Summary

Using the above trends, we can drastically thin the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup field. In fact, the only real contender based on these trends is Nicky Henderson’s Bobs Worth. He may be the favourite at a current best price of 4/1 (5.00) with SportingBet, but sometimes it’s difficult to argue with the statistics. Besides, we tipped him to win the RSA Chase at Cheltenham and he didn’t let us down, so it would be hard to desert him now!

If you are one of those punters (like me) that prefers a bigger priced value bet, then you could do much worse than backing Saint Are for the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup. Tim Vaughan’s six year old ticks most of the trends boxes and looked impressive when last seen at Aintree, winning a Listed chase. He’s currently a best price of 16/1 (17.00) with Coral and could be the Each-Way play in the race.

Advice

2012 Hennessy Gold Cup

Saturday December 1st, 15:10
Bobs Worth @ 4/1 (5.00) with SportingBet

Saint Are (Each-Way) @ 16/1 (17.00) with Coral

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