Danedream,  Prix De L'Arc De TriompheThe 2012 renewal of Europe’s most valuable horse race, the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe – more commonly known on these shores as ‘The Arc’ – takes place on Sunday October 3rd at 15:25 UK time. The recent withdrawals of Snow Fairy and last year’s winner Danedream (pictured) through injury and quarantine respectively, has left the race wide open. But who will win? We take a look at the big race trends and draw our conclusions…

Key Trends

As always, we’ve taken a look at the key trends ahead of the 2012 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, in a bid to find the winner:

Age

  • 15 of the last 18 winners of the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe were aged 3

It’s clear to see that three year olds have by far the best record in the Arc and therefore, it seems fair to focus solely on this age group.

Past Form

  • All of the last 10 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe winners had won a Group One race
  • All of the last 10 winners were having their first run in the Arc
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had winning form over 12f

Looking at these very strong trends, it’s obvious that we should be looking for a classy horse that has won over the Arc trip of 12f. The fact that none of the last ten winners had attempted the race before ties in with the age trend to a large extent.

Current Form

  • 9 of the last 10 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe winners had won 50% (or more) of that season’s races
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 35 days

These trends suggest that our 2012 Arc selection should be in good form and not too rusty, with a recent run under its belt.

Summary

The only horse in the current 2012 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe line up that meets all of the above trends is Aidan O’Brien’s Derby winning colt, Camelot.

There has previously been an element of doubt as to whether Camelot would contest the race, but speaking to reporters today, the master of Ballydoyle spoke positively of the chances of the horse lining up, as well as his stablemate St Nicholas Abbey:

“Both of them are doing a little bit in the morning and if they come through that well… we’ll see what we’re going to do. They have to go through all their tests and pass all those things before they get the all clear, but we’d be looking forward to it if that could happen.”

At a current best price of 4/1 (5.00) with Ladbrokes, Camelot seems to be the one to be on, but if you prefer a bigger priced option, then it might be worth looking to another O’Brien trained horse – Imperial Monarch.

The three year old son of Galileo only falls down on one of the trends, as his last run was back in July. However it was at Longchamp – the setting for the Arc – and if the ground comes up soft, he’ll enjoy that more than most. Although not certain to run, he could represent a bit of a value at a current best price of 16/1 (17.00) with Bet365 if he does line up.

Advice

The 2012 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe

Sunday October 7th, 15:25
Camelot @ 4/1 (5.00) with Ladbrokes

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