2012 Cesarewitch Tips; Caracciola, Winner Of 2008 RenewalNewmarket’s Cesarewitch Handicap was first run in 1839 and is a race steeped in history. In recent years, it has thrown up some big priced winners; Caracciola (pictured) won at 50/1 in 2008, while last year’s renewal was won by Never Can Tell at 25/1. But who will land the 2012 Cesarewitch? We’ve picked out a couple with good chances and have plumped for a 25/1 (26.00) chance with Paddy Power

Key Trends

In order to solve the puzzle of the 2012 Cesarewitch Handicap, we’ve taken a look at recent winners of the race in an attempt to build up a profile of a potential winner. We can then apply any trends that emerge to the 2012 field in order to thin it from the current 55 entries, down to a more manageable figure.

Past Form

  • All of the last 10 Cesarewitch Handicap winners had won a race over 2m or further (either flat or NH)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than three handicaps
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps

Due to the distance of the Cesarewitch (2m 2f) it’s clearly an advantage to be backing a horse that has already proven its stamina, but at the same time, the trends suggest that we should be looking towards the less exposed runners in the field.

Current Form

  • 9 of the last 10 Cesarewitch winners finished in the font four on their last flat run
  • 9 of the last 10 Cesarewitch winners finished in the font four on their last flat run
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 98 and 87

As 9/10 (including all of the last 8) had finished in the front four last time out, we should clearly be looking for a Cesarewitch horse that is already in some kind of form on the flat, while a similar number had run at least four times already that year, suggesting that we don’t want to be picking a rusty horse.

A majority of recent winners (and all of the last six) were rated between 98 and 87 by the handicapper. Ideally, we want a Cesarewitch selection that strikes the right balance between their ability and the weight they are expected to carry over this extreme trip, so that seems a fair group to focus on.

Summary

After applying the above trends to the 2012 Cesarewitch field, the three I like most are Stormy Weather, Montaser and Very Good Day.

I’m going to discount the first of the trio, due to the fact that he will be carrying a penalty. The recent record of horses carrying a penalty in the Cesarewitch is not great, with just one winner in the past ten years from a total of 45 horses.

David Simcock’s Montaser is certainly an unexposed colt on an upward curve, but he’s amongst the favourites at a current best price of 12/1 (13.00) with BetVictor and with so many horses going to post, I need a little bit more value to make it an interesting betting proposition. So while I wouldn’t rule him out, I’m going to side with Very Good Day instead.

Mick Channon’s five year old can be a little inconsistent, but if he can run as he did when winning at York in July or last time out (also York) when unlucky in running (stayed on well to claw back second place) then he’s entitled to run at least a place. At a current best price of 25/1 (26.00) with Paddy Power, I’m prepared to give him an Each-Way chance.

Advice

The 2012 Cesarewitch

Saturday October 13th, 15:35
Very Good Day @ 25/1 (26.00) with Paddy Power

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